Super Longshots: Retzlaff, DiBenedetto Stick Out!
For super longshots, Parker Retzlaff (+25000) and Matt DiBenedetto (+50000) are worth a sprinkle. Retzlaff’s my ‘fifth’ bet of the weekend, but since I’m feeling generous, I’ll throw in DiBenedetto as well, to celebrate a tripleheader weekend in the Poconos’.
Retzlaff has shown success on road courses before getting caught up in chaos and of course has the infamous Top 5 in the Cup Series at Daytona last year on a drafting-style track in a high pressure situation.
Of course, Pocono is not Daytona by any means, but the size and need to use a draft are there. However, a Pocono draft is much more individualized than the pack-style racing seen at Daytona and Talladega, but still a factor worth mentioning.
I like Retzlaff to get a result this weekend if he can stay out of harm’s way. A Top 10 might be in the cards if you can find the means to bet it on Hard Rock or another obscure book, which holds some value.
However, let’s put a couple bucks on the outright win just for fun. With Elton Sawyer up in the NASCAR tower making decisions, crazier things have happened. If this turns into a fuel mileage race, look for Retzlaff to punt on stage points in favor of chasing victory, given Sawyer’s win and you’re in playoff format.
The last truly improbably drafting track win we saw came from Jeremy Clements back in August of 2022 at Daytona. Never forget the infamous Brandon Brown win at ‘Dega in the Fall of ’21 either.
I like Retzlaff as a sleeper to show up at some point this weekend. Keep an eye on that No. 4 car Saturday afternoon, as he could surprise you!
Now, Matt DiBenedetto is simply a vibes play for me. Similar to Retzlaff, I am not expecting a win over names like Elliott, Zilisch or Gray. However, DiBenedetto had good results in the Wood Brothers No. 21 in Cup at large, drafting-style race tracks and that alone is worth a dollar or two at 500-1 odds. Factor in that he won a truck race at Talladega a few years ago and the name value alone reasonates.
Of course, +50,000 odds are +50,000 odds for a reason. Vegas isn’t going to give you that on just anyone. But… DiBenedetto has experience here in every form of NASCAR machine, as well as drafting technique at big tracks, where aerodynamics come into play. Again, a solid option for a Top 10 bet sprinkle or Top 10 juicer in a parlay, but probably not the guy you want to pick to win the race, keep that in mind.
With Elton Sawyer issuing a handful of penalties to the field, as he did on Friday afternoon in the truck race, there may be some value here.
Retzlaff and DiBenedetto just need to run a smart race, execute clean pit stops and prioritize finishing result over stage points.
The NASCAR Xfinity Series at Pocono, baby!
A couple wrecks on a Stage 3 restart go their way and who knows, maybe some chaos, such as 2023 with Austin Hill, are in the cards.
Do not put more than $5 on these names, but do consider playing them if you want a longshot, the way the board currently sits.
Both drivers have shown flashes of brilliance, making them intriguing long-odds bets for a miracle run.
Alright, let’s get into some strategy now and the nitty gritty for Pocono Raceway.
